I’m reluctant to engage in too much speculation — in general I think counterfactuals are harmful to political conversation, and we should focus on the reality of what happened and why. That said, I do think the combination of past history (the Mulford Act, especially) and the current environment provide a lot of clues as to what we should expect if black gun ownership became more widespread.

As it currently stands, Pew research says white households are about 50% more likely to own a gun than black households (and more than twice as likely as Hispanic households), and while I haven’t seen data on open-carry, I strongly suspect it’s far, far less common among people of color.

It’s bitterly hypocritical that many Americans, without giving it much thought, will regard a black man’s possession of a firearm as justification for his immediate execution by police, while white men are toting AR-15s around Walmart to demonstrate their right to open-carry.

A couple of years ago, some folks tested the theory about racial disparities in police response to open-carry, and the resulting video was illustrative: https://www.thedailybeast.com/heres-what-happens-when-a-black-man-open-carries-gun

However I’m not personally a fan of the “all black people start carrying guns, so we can get gun laws passed” rhetoric as anything more than a bitter joke on American hypocrisy. It makes a political prop out of a population that’s been systematically denied equal rights for centuries, and that’s kind of gross — I don’t like the idea that we celebrate the disparate treatment black people receive. That said, if individual people of color want to test this theory, that’s up to them. :-)